If I Can Make It There...

Introduction

As some of you know, long before there was the Random Thoughts, there was the Rick Springfield Fan Club Fantasy Football League Week-In-Review. In fact, it was the WIR, that morphed into the RT weekly newletter, which, in turn, morphed into the online RT that you all now enjoy oh so much. So, why am I sharing this nugget of seemingly irrelevant history with you, when you are probably more interested in the origins of the name Suri than how the Random Thoughts got started?

Simply stated, I am giving you fair warning that the next three days are going to represent a departure for the RT. For the last couple of years, I have written a Season Preview for the Springfield Fan Club FFB League (yes, there is a story behind the name of the league. In fact, it is a very good story involving a one-legged hottie with a prothesis and a bank of Addams Family nickel slot machines) and I will be using this space over the next three days to post the preview. Sure, I would love to do both the league preview and a normal RT post, but I simply do not have the time. After all, I have to save a least a couple of minutes in order to check the lost and found box and my local post office for the White Sox missing offense.

Now, please do not fret and head over to Bob's Random Sports Thoughts or Dan's Random Politics Thoughts or Michael Jackson's Random Child Care Thoughts if you are not a member of the RSFC. Stick around! You may not care about whether the Legs will finally put the Loafers curse to bed once and for all or whether Slappers will suffer through a four-game losing streak after insisting on including Ron Jeremy, Buck Naked, and Dirk Diggler in his lineup because they are always guaranteed to score, but my thoughts on the 192 players that are currently on RSFC team rosters will give you a good glimpse of my thoughts on the upcoming NFL season. And you never know when all your RT favorites, including Thing One, The Team Who Must Not Be Named, and Jessica Alba will show up. Enjoy!

*** Note for RSFC Team Owners: As always, please do not take any of this too seriously (especially if my ultimate conclusion is that your team is so bad that you would have been better off spending your $63 on Alf pogs, Pokemon cards, and Furbys). In fact, if you are like Tony Kornheiser and the slightest criticism sends you into a Ozzie-esque rage, please go ahead and put your Celine Dion CD back in the player, put your apron back on and resume your baking. And, if you do decide to stick around, please remember that the following represents my opinion, which is as likely to be completely wrong as it is to be right. After all if you like your team and I compare it to the 1963 New York Mets, you may be right and I may be crazy. Just call me Billy Joel.

Here we go...

New York, New York Division

Where you can have a corned beef on rye at Monk's Cafe, Doug Heffernan might deliver your latest shipment of sea monkeys, and if Detective Mac Taylor doesn't catch the criminal, detectives Elliot Stabler and Olivia Benson certainly will. In the end, it is a great place to live, but you do have to put up with Woody Allen.

Loafers (Bill McGovern)

Quarterback: Carson Palmer proved last year that he is likely the next great quarterback in the NFL and has returned from his serious knee injury quicker than anyone could have imagined. Despite the possibility that Carson may be initially hesitant playing on a reconstructed knee and the fact that Cincinnati plays what is perhaps the toughest schedule in the league, there is no reason to think that Palmer will not, once again, treat NFL pass defenses like he treated the Fighting Irish during his 2002 Heisman Trophy Award winning season and take yet another step forward in his development. In fact, there is no reason not to believe that he will not at least equal his 33 TD total of a year ago. As long as Big Ben stays off his motorcycle, he ought to be a more-than-capable backup... at least until he comes down with a case of scurvy or hot dog fingers. At least now he does not have to worry about his appendix falling out in the middle of a game anymore. Grade: A-

Running Backs: Should J.P. Losman provide the Bills with a respectable passing game, Willis McGahee could have a big bounce-back season after last year's disappointment. My guess is that he will be solid. Most football fans like Bush, but not everyone is sold on Reggie (yeah, I admit it. I took the really cheap joke). He will turn heads with his tremendous talent, but, ultimately, will be splitting carries and playing on a mediocre, at best, Saints team... a formula that is unlikely to lead to particularily good fantasy numbers. 1,500 combined yards may be a realistic goal, but six TDs is probably Bush's ceiling. Ron Dayne hopes to take home an NFL paycheck for a sixth consecutive year, example 1A of why the American system, at times, rewards even the biggest cretins among us. Michael Pittman hopes to stay out of prison for a sixth consecutive year, example 1B of why the American system, at times, rewards even the biggest cretins among us. Neither will often Loafers anything except possibly a chance to laugh at their ineptitude. The bottom line is that Loafers lacks a a pair of dependable starters and has a tremendous lack of depth. Grade: C-

Wide Receivers: Someone has to catch the ball in Green Bay, and if it isn't Nathan Vasher or some other opposing defensive back, it is likely to be Donald Driver. That said, expect Driver to put up very good numbers, as the Packers fall behind in games and have to throw to catch up. Joey Galloway and Rod Smith are both 135 years old, but both are coming off 1,00o yard seasons. Smith very well may accomplish the feat again, but me thinks that Galloway, on the other hand, is more likely to wind up making weekly visits to Dr. Hibbert than he is duplicating his 10 TDs of a year ago. Drew Bennett adds decent depth, while Justin McCairens once ate six Big Macs in a single sitting (okay, so I don't know if that is really true, but I cannot think of anything else to say about a guy who had 713 yards and two TDs in '05). Grade: C+

Tight End: I'm afraid to include the words "tight end" in the same sentence that I mention Jeremy Shockey. Very afraid. Grade: A-

Kicker and D/ST: Adam Vinatieri is the NFL's answer to Dylan McKay...always cool under pressure. Of course, he starts the season hampered by a broken foot....I mean a sprained foot... I mean a foot that was completely mangled in a combine accident... I mean a bruised foot... I mean he spent four nights lost somewhere on the north slope of Mount Kilamajaro and frost bite has forced doctors to amputate his foot... I mean he cut it on a broken beer bottle left behind by Mike Vanderjagt. Sheesh, Indianapolis Colts and Vinatieri... make up your mind already. At least we know that backup kicker Jeff Reed has a foot. Carolina and Denver's D/ST will consistently score points. Grade: A-

X-Factor: Reggie Bush. Loafers has serious running back issues. He will need Bush's talent to translate to immediate success, or else be forced to pry Ron Dayne away from the ice-cream bar and insert him in the lineup. And starting Dayne as a second running back would be like starting Gopherball Glendon Rusch as a #2 starter and nobody could possibly be stupid enough to do that.

Overall: Palmer has answered all the questions and will give Loafers top-notch production from the QB slot. Shockey, Vinatieri and the Panthers' D/ST will also be excellent contributors (unless, of course, Vinatieri comes down with a case of drop foot). The problem lies with the running backs and receivers, which are arguably the two most important positions in football. Grade: C+

Mr. October (Adam Hecht)

Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck is as steady as they come and can be counted on for 24-28 TD, unless he is too busy trying to figure out of way to steal Elisabeth from his brother Tim to adequately focus on the season. Of course, his season could also be sent careening by a nasty allergic reaction to Minoxidil. Drew Brees is a solid backup who is coming off rotator cuff surgery and is likely to get the job done if called upon. Grade: B+ (Elisabeth ain't that good looking and she insists on bringing co-worker Rosie O'Donnell with her on dates)

Running Backs: Remember when Mike Hampton signed that huge contract with the Colorado Rockies and then proceeded to go 21-28 with an ERA of almost six runs per game in two seasons in Denver? There are three rock-solid axioms in sports: (1) Prior and Wood will get hurt; (2) you cannot pitch successfully in the thin air of Colorado; and (3) you cannot have success rushing the ball in Arizona. Good luck Edge. Expecting a repeat of last year's 1,500 yards and 14 TDs would be a mistake. Thomas Jones would be a terrific pick if he was the unquestioned starter. For some reason, that only Lovie, Ron Turner and probably Dusty Baker understand, he isn't. Reuben Droughns proved last year that he can gain yards on a bad team with a suspect offensive line and his TD total is likely to improve this season. Of course, improving on two total TDs is like increasing the male viewership of The Gilmore Girls. Verron Haynes adds depth and LenDale White may actually strap on the pads and get goal line looks if everything falls into place. In other words, White actually has to put down the chicken leg and the Titans actually have to get to the goal line. One less likely than the other. Grade: B

Wide Receivers: Torry Holt is one of top receivers in the game. The departure of mad scientist Mike Martz may result in a downturn in his numbers, but, as long as Wanny and Dick Jauron are not in charge in St. Louis, you have to figure that the Rams' coaching staff will be smart enough to get the ball in Holt's hands with regularity -- 1,300 and 10 TD is likely. Hines Ward is also a consistent producer who, if his current injury woes do not slow him down too much, will have another excellent season. Keyshawn Johnson is an excellent bench choice who will be solid opposite Steve Smith in Carolina, while Roddy White would be a nice sleeper selection if only Michael Vick could throw the ball within 30 feet of his intended receiver. Robert Ferguson? I guess fomer Packers Antonio Freeman and Bill Schroeder have retired and, therefore, were not options. Grade: A-

Tight End: As of this writing, Scott Podsednik is the Sox starting left fielder, Juan Mateo and Angel Guzman are starting pitchers for the Cubs, and Zach Hilton is the Mr. October's starting tight end. At least Steven Segal is no longer the leading name on a movie marquee. Grade: F

Kicker and D/ST: Mike Vanderjagt's career seems to be going downhill faster than Sherry Stringfield's after she left E.R. to be a movie "star." He has an apparent injury and seems to spend a little too much time bellying up to the bar with Koren Robinson and Mel Gibson. The Colts' D/ST is solid (especially in collecting sacks with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on the outside) and the Giants' is a capable back-up. Grade: B

X-Factor: It is hard to criticize Mr. October for selecting Edge with the fifth overall pick, yet there certainly are questions. If the Cardinals' line can create running room, he will put up numbers worthy of an elite back. If, however, adding Aaron Gibson and Stan Thomas to the line would be an upgrade, Edge will struggle and Mr. October will face the consequences.

Overall: A solid team across the board (save for the tight end position). Mr. October is likely to be in contention all season long. Better keep Elisabeth out of the locker room, though. Grade: B

The Prosthetic Legs (Dan Wagner)

Quarterback: Kurt Warner has about as much chance to stay healthy for an entire season as Kevin Federline's new "rap" album has in winning a Grammy. Warner has missed 14 games over the last three seasons with one ailment or another. When he does play, however, he has a chance to be successful and put up nice points given all of Arizona's weapons in the passing game. Brett Favre can also still put up numbers, but has become more likely to throw an interception as he is a touchdown. And with that offensive line, he may need to turn back to Vicodin before the season is over. Grade: B- (would have been a 'B' but for the likelihood, that even if Warner does stay healthy, he may also need to turn to pain killers once he realizes that, yes, in fact he really did marry her -- come to think of it, with the greying spikey hair, the not-so-lovely Mrs. Warner kind of looks like Brett Favre).

Running Backs: Extrapolate the numbers that Larry Johnson put up over the last nine games of 2005 and he would rush for like 4,600 yards and 75 touchdowns over a full season. It remains to be seen whether the loss of All-Pro tackle Willie Roaf has the same effect on his statistics that Pam Anderson's departure from Baywatch had on the show's ratings. Johnson is too good to fall far. 1,700 and 15-20 TD can be expected. Chester Taylor is a bit of a mystery. After four seasons behind Jamal Lewis in Baltimore, he finally gets the starting gig in Minnesota and will get to run behind a reinforced O-line. Of course, it only translated to a little more than two yards per carry in the pre-season. Ultimately, Taylor will be terribly inconsistent and may not cross the goal line as much as the Legs hope. With Broncos' coach Mike Shanahan's insistent on continually "proving" to the world that he is a genius that can plug virtually anyone into the Denver backfield and watch them rush for 1,300 yards, Denver running backs have been a fantasy cesspool for the last five years. Congratulations Dan! By drafting Mike and Tatum Bell, you just dove in head first. Yes, a Bell may wind up putting up excellent numbers this year, but it is just as likely to be Buddy, Cool Papa or the Taco Bell chihuahua than it is to be Mike or Tatum. Heck, it is just as likely to be Player A. Michael Turner will be a stud if LaDainian Tomlinson should come down with an injury and Vernand Morency is the only Vernand in the league. Grade: A-

Wide Receivers: Randy Moss suffered through a myriad of injuries last year and still managed to put up more than 1,000 yards and 8 TDs. Hard to believe, but he is still only 29 years old and is primed for a big, big season. Anquan Boldin averaged more than 100 yards per game in 2005 and is in the prime of his career. How much the presence of Edgerrin James and the continued development of Larry Fitzgerald will cut into his production is as unanswerable a question as why does Howie Mandel own a comb. He may not average 100 per game, but 1,250 yards and 8-10 score is likely. Me-Sin Me-Hammed will have an excellent season if Lovie ever pulls his head out of Rex the Wonder Dog's butt or Rex comes down with a bird flu. Reche Caldwell is likely to be on the waiver wire before this season's premiere of Survivor: Cook Islands (scheduled for next Thursday. Grade: A-

Tight End: During the last couple of years, the Legs has elected to draft two up-and-coming tight ends and hope that one lives up to his potential. This year's draftees are Ben Troupe and L.J. Smith. Troupe plays in an offense that throws to the tight end more often than to the wide receivers and Smith was developing into Donovan McNabb's favorite recevier before McNabb's season was cut short by a hernia, an injured groin and pure exhaustion from having to deal with T.O. all season. The odds are good that one will have a break-out season. Grade: B

Kicker and D/ST: Jessica Alba is, after all, the Random Thoughts hottie and, without a doubt, the best pick of the 2006 RSFC FFB League draft. Oh sure, she will get dropped before the season starts, but how many people do you know that can say that they once dropped Jessica Alba? Isn't knowing Dan the greatest accomplishment of your life? Grade A++++ (Seattle's D/ST ain't bad either, though Keira Knightly would have been a better choice)

X-Factor: Chester Taylor. Taylor could be 2006's version of LaMont Jordan, but, unfortunately, he could also be James Allen. If Taylor puts up the numbers expected of him in Minnesota, the Taylor- Larry Johnson combo will be capable of carrying the Legs to great things.

Overall: Assuming that they play to form (a fairly safe assumption), Johnson, Moss and Boldin will form an excellent core and their presence means that the Legs' remaining players only have to be respectable. The Legs has made three straight appearances in the championship game (you knew I was going to throw that in there, right?) and a fourth is certainly not out of the question. Grade: B+

Shabbit (Joe Chervin)

Quarterback: Maybe the San Diego Chargers' management will have the last laugh and Phillip Rivers will be this year's Carson Palmer. Maybe he will make the fine folks of San Diego completely forget that the team let established QB Drew Brees sign with New Orleans and that he was essentially traded for Eli Manning. Maybe he will make the Pro-Bowl, pitch game two of the National League Division Series for the Padres, save a koala from drowning at the San Diego Zoo and be so successful that he starts hanging out with not only Ron Burgandy, but Tits McGee as well. Shabbit better hope so. His starting QB is presently Jake Plummer. Grade: C-

Running Backs: Now that Ricky Williams has taken his rolling papers and Bob Marley albums to Canada, Ronnie Brown no longer has to share carries in South Florida. Expect a break-out year from the second-year back. LaMont Jordan is one of the top rushing-receiving threats in the game. Another solid season with 1,500-1,600 combined yards is as easy to predict as the fact that Susan Lucci will fail to win a Daytime Emmy. Kevan Barlow has promised to live up to potential in the past and failed, why should we believe him now? Former Marine Mike Anderson provides decent depth (not to mention excellent protection should Shabbit's team hotel come under seige). Last I checked Najeh Davenport was working at a Pick 'n' Save in Eau Claire. I'd rather get pierced through the heart by a stingray than have that guy. Grade: B (Too solid backs can be hard to come by, but depth is a problem)

Wide Receivers: Darrell Jackson was one of the most consistent wide receivers in the league before a knee injury sidelined him in week five last season. Now rumor has it that he came back too early from the injury in order to play during the Seahawks' Super Bowl run and is not 100% entering the season. This, like an intrascrotal hematoma, is a potential huge problem. Plaxico Burress all-too-often follows a 120 yard performance with a 40 yard game, but his talent is undeniable. He may not be consistent, but, in the end, the numbers will be there. Matt Jones is a terrific sleeper pick who I predict will develop into Jacksonville's main red zone target. If he doesn't Ernest Wilford just might. Antonio Bryant is also a fantastic sleeper as he is San Francisco's unquestioned number one receiver (which is a little like being the tallest Ewok) and has a lot of talent. Corey Bradford has not been the same since his consecutive games with a three-pointer streak ended years ago (oh man, you are not a Bradford fan too, are you Orange Whip?) Grade: B (would be a B+ but for the very real questions surrounding D Jax)

Tight End: For years, there were a few things you could count on in Kansas City. The barbeque was going to be great, Hallmark cards would be in everyone's mailbox, strange sounds would be heard coming from one of the boy's bedrooms at the Erdman house and Tony Gonzalez would put up excellent numbers and cap off his TDs by slamming the ball over the crossbar. Well, unfortunately, two things can no longer be counted on. Young Todd now lives in Chicago and Tony Gonzalez suddenly looks mortal. His 905 yards were more than acceptable, but he scored the same number of TDs as Desmond Clark. You have to figure that the number will go up, but with Tony asked to stay in and block more following the aforementioned retirement of Roaf, a return to the glory days just is not going to happen. Grade: B+

Kicker and D/ST: David Akers and the Pittsburgh D/ST is as solid as it gets. Akers will rebound from an injury-plagued 2o05 and will put up points in Philly's improved offense, while the Steelers' D has been solid since Facts of Life was on the air. Grade: A-

X-Factor: Darrell Jackson. When healthy, Darrell is a borderline #1 receiver. But, how healthy is he? Shabbit really does not have another guy who can possibly qualify as a top-of-the-line guy (although he does have three guys who could reasonably be excellent #2 wideouts), and may need Jackson to contribute at a high level to make up for his problems at QB. Did I mention that his starting QB is Plummer?

Overall: Another team sure to contend, albeit a team with, what in my mind is, a major hole. Shabbit will be fine with his running backs, receivers, TE, D/ST and kicker, but did I mention that Jake Plummer is his QB? Shabbit will be there until the end, but may ultimately have to hope that Plummer channels the Colordao aura of John Elway to win the championship. Grade: B