Oh, The Madness!!!

Eleven months of agony...one month of pure bliss. Okay, so that overstates it just a bit, but, in my mind, March is by far the best month of the sports calendar. Thirty-one days of excitement and fun. Thirty-one days of heart-stopping, buzzer-beating, craziness-inspiring MADNESS!

Oh yeah, March also means thirty-one days of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior injury reports and thirty days of Ozzie Guillen sticking his foot in his mouth (I gave him one day off to reflect on the opportunity he has been given in the good ol' USA and ponder whether he would be as wealthy if he was merely Venezuela's answer to Colin Egglesfield).

Anyway, now that I have angered everyone who lives south of Lisle (not to mention a certain woman who shares my home), let's talk about the most wonderful time of the year. Today we will discuss the prospects of various teams -- this will be a more-serious discussion that should appeal to the die-hard CBB fan, while tomorrow we will get back into having fun and will diversify our conversation a bit.

With only 11 days until Selection Sunday, things are beginning to take shape, but there are still a lot of questions. In my mind, there are currently 52 locks and 23 teams reasonably on the bubble. Doing the math indicates that there are 75 teams for 65 spots, but this does not take into account possible upsets in conference tournaments. For example, should Gonzaga lose in the WCC tournament, the champion would take one of the available slots. Below is my conference breakdown (conferences not mentioned are one-bid):

ACC: Duke, UNC, Boston College and NC State are all in. Florida State has a make-it-or-break it game against Duke tonight. A win and they move up the ladder. A loss and they are done. The same goes for Virginia tonight against Carolina, although the Cavs would need a few more wins on top of the UNC victory to get a bid. Both Miami (Fla) and Maryland are in serious trouble and the loser of tonight's game will slide off the bubble and into the NIT.

A-10: George Washington is a lock and will be the only A-10 selection unless they are upset in the conference tournament, a scenario that I expect to happen. My guess is that either Temple or St. Joe's pulls the trick.

Big 12: First of all, let me say that the Big 12 is Dee Brown overrated this year. One truly good skill...Texas (speed); one decent team that is not quite as good as the media is portraying them... The Team-who-must-not-be-named (and yes, I felt that way before last Saturday night) (outside shooting), and one ridiculously overrated team...Oklahoma (pretty much the rest of Dee's game). That said they will all be dancing. Colorado has a good shot based solely on conference record (especially with a win tonight at the home of the Team-who-must-not-be-named), while Texas A & M has a make or break game with Texas tonight. If they win they have a shot. A loss and they are Sammy Sosa-done.

Big East: The 2006 national champions (no, that is not a typo), the 1985 national champions, the 1984 national champions, the 1977 national champions, team that plays in the same city as the 2006 Superbowl champions, and my newfound-beloved, yet cursed, Mountaineers are all locks. Syracuse, Seton Hall and Thug U. (aka Cincinnati) are all on the bubble. Syracuse need only beat DePaul on Thursday, while Seton Hall and Cincinnati could go either way. Both have difficult games to close out the season (the Hall is at Pitt, Cincy hosts W.Va)

Big Ten: Six are in. Indiana will join them with a win over Purdue tonight (see below) and a win at Michigan on Saturday or in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. It is that simple.

Colonial Athletic Conference: George Mason is dancing regardless. UNC Wilmington and Hofstra are both on the bubble but one or the other has a decent chance to join Mason as the second CAA team. Wilmington has the better chance as GM is on the other side of the conference tournament bracket. In the end, my guess is that two teams make it -- more on why I am so sure of this tomorrow or Friday.

Conference USA: Memphis is a lock. UAB is close, but may need a win over Memphis in Birmingham on Thursday or in the CUSA tournament. I believe that the Blazers will pull off the upset tomorrow. I'm not buying UTEP as a candidate

Missouri Valley: What a colossal mess. Wichita State will get in regardless and that is where the certainty ends. Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, Todd Erdman University (Bradley), Creighton and Missouri State can all make a case, although none of them is particularily compelling in my eyes. These teams all have top-50 RPI wins, but, with the exception of Northern Iowa's victories over Iowa and at LSU, they are all victories over one-another. To complicate matters, Creighton and Bradley play in the "Arch Madness" quarterfinals, as do Missouri State and N. Iowa. SIU got the biggest break with the matchups, getting what should be a cakewalk into the semifinals. How will this all break out? If you can figure this out, please also send me the answer to the question: Why in the heck is David Spade so popular? In other words, some questions you simply cannot answer.

Mountain West: The Mountain West has three candidates and, looking at the pure numbers, none of them deserves to make it. That said, history tells us that the regular season champ will get a bid so San Diego State should be fine if they take care of business tonight against Fennis Dembo U. (Wyoming). Air Force and BYU are both on the bubble and need conference tournament runs, although the buzz is very positive around AF.

By the way, wait until you see current SD State and former Michigan coach Steve Fisher. The guy look like he is 125 years old.

Pac 10: Like the Big 12, this has been a bad conference this year. UCLA, Arizona and Washington are in and California is likely to join them with a win this weekend against either UCLA or USC. Cal is a lot like Colorado. The only reason that they are in the discussion is their conference record.

Patriot: Bucknell should be win regardless of whether they win the league tourney or not. Yes, the same Bucknell that knocked off the Team-who-must-not-be-named last year.

SEC: Five in, with one more a possibility. LSU, Bama, Arkansas, Tennessee and Florida are all safe. Kentucky is not and would be wise to either win at Tennessee tonight or at Rupp Arena against sturggling Florida this weekend

Sun Belt: Western Kentucky would be squarely on the bubble should something go wrong in the Sun Belt tournament. Let's hope that nothing goes wrong. The tournament without Grimace the Hilltopper is just not the same.

WAC: Nevada is in good-shape and should get in regardless of conference tournament performance. Utah State does not have the same luxury. They had better plan on making a nice run.

WCC: Despite an utter indifference to defense, Gonzaga keeps winning. Just wait until they run into a real team and not a bunch of over-tanned surfers.

Sorry, about the relative seriousness of this post, but since we are going to be doing a lot of talking about the merits of teams leading up to Selection Sunday, I figured that this would be a good place to begin.

*** Finally, as I mentioned above, Indiana merely needs to beat the Boilers tonight and then either beat Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday or win their first round Big Ten game to make the tournament. That said, I fear that the chips are stacked against them tonight. (A) They suck on the road. (B) Purdue has had a full six days to prepare and rest. (C) Purdue will have the emotional boost of Senior Night. (D) Purdue would love nothing more than to spoil the Hoosiers' four-letter tournament plans. And (E) they really suck on the road.

That said, Killingsworth has two fouls by the 10-minute mark, Matt Kiefer has a double-double in his final game in a Purdue uniform and Purdue beats IU 68-64.