The Eyes Have It

What can I say? Today is a sad, sad day. For a third straight year, the NCAA Tournament will have to go forward without the presence of everyone's favorite mascot...the Western Kentucky Hilltopper. Last night in the Sun Belt Tournament final, the University of South Alabama Jaguars absolutely crushed the Toppers ending Western Kentucky's NCAA dreams. At least now we can watch the game and chant "USA, USA, USA!"

For those of you who do not know who "Big Red" is, please visit: http://www.wku.edu/Athletics/tradition/bigred.html.

Now, we can only hope that Xavier makes an unlikely run in the Atlantic 10 tournament. A tournament without the Grimace the Hilltopper and the Blue Blob just would not be the same...

By the way, the Syracuse OrangeMEN just defeated the Cincinnati Bearcats on Gerry McNamara's running three-pointer with 0.3 seconds to play. With the win, Syracuse remains alive for a bid. To quote Monty Python and the Holy Grail "We're not dead yet," although with a quarterfinal game against your 2006 NCAA Champion Connecticut Huskies looming, they might as well climb into the wheelbarrow and get carted off now (and, no, Jim Beoheim is not a witch).

Now, I suppose that many of you are expecting at least a short discussion about Barry Bonds and, trust me, I have quite a lot to say about the issue. But, given that the issue is sure to be the focus of all mainstream media discussions (at least we won't have to deal with idiotic NCAA chatter for the day), I'm going to save the issue for another day, one that is a tad closer to the start of the baseball season. Besides, I'd rather not let a negative issue interrupt what is one of the greatest weeks of the year. Okay?

I will say that Mr. Personality didn't suddenly get that big and round by chewing a stick of Willy Wonka's entire-meal-in-a-stick-gum. Although at times, he does look a bit purple.

Now, before we jump into today's lesson, there are two members of the North Shore Team-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named Rock Chalk Society who deserve mention. Our good friend Bearister recognizes my technology-ignorance and has been kind enough to post a very nice picture of Jeesica Alba on his site: http://thebearisterreport.blogspot.com/. In fact, I would like to take this opportunity to officially name Jessica as the "Official Random Thoughts Hottie." Hugh Hefner has already warned me to expect lawsuit papers any day.

I'd also like to thank Miss-I-Still-Can't-Believe-They-Lost-to-Rhode-Island-In-the-Second-Round-Where-Was-Paul-Pierce-When-We-Need-Him for forwarding me an article about Isiah Thomas' visit to Bloomington yesterday. If the Hoosiers hire Zeke as their next head coach, I may officially consider dropping my citizenship in Hoosier Nation. By the way, the same article mentions that John Calipari and Indiana have mutual interest in one another. Let me just say, for the record, that my original mention of Calipari back when Davis first resigned, came before ANY mention of Calipari was made by anyone connected with either John or IU. Self-pat on the back? Heck yeah!

Okay, yesterday, we talked about how the media is a roving gang of idiots, how road record is not the end-all, be-all, and how what qualifies as a "quality win" or "bad loss" depends on the name on the front of your jersey. Let's press on with Bracketology 101.

RPI is the Single Most Important Factor in the Selection Process. No, It's Not. Yes, It Is. No, It's Just a Tool. Yes, And It's the Tool. You're An Idiot. No, You're An Idiot. Well, My Dad Could Beat Up Your Dad. Well, Your Mother...

Ahhh, the much debated Ratings Percentage Index. For years, the BSC-conferences loved it, while the mid-majors cursed its very existence. ESPN focuses on it, bracketologists love (and hate) it, and the Sagarin Ratings want to be it. Meanwhile, the Committee has consistently screamed to the hills..."It does not mean much of anything. It's just a tool!!!!"

Uh huh. Sure. Strange then how no team with an RPI of #33 or better has EVER been relegated to the NIT.

Well, it appears that this is finally the year that we are going to learn the truth and the issue naturally centers on, what else, the good ol' Missouri Valley. Specifically, will #21 RPI Missouri State get a bid? Missouri State has the highest RPI of all Valley teams, yet has only a single top-100 non-conference win (at Wisconsin-Milwaukee) and is a combined 4-7 against the other five Valley NCAA contenders (as a reminder that's SIU, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Bradley, and Wichita State). Let me be blunt. This is not an NCAA profile, which leaves the Committee with a really interesting decision. Do they actually follow the stated selection criteria and leave out the #21 RPI team or do they follow their well-worn pattern of favoring the RPI? Finally, bracketologists are going to learn the true value of the RPI.

Of course, this situation begs the question...how in the heck is Missouri State #21 and the highest rated team in the RPI? To this question, my friends, I have no answers. Let's just agree that the RPI is pretty messed up this year. Will the Committee recognize this is the key question.

How You Finish Can Make-or-Break Your Candidacy

The Committee's guidelines clearly state that they are required to look at a team's "entire body of work," but how you finish the season can be the difference between a bid and disappointment. Let's compare it to the bedroom. You may get off to a mind blowing start, but you had better not leave the Committee unsatisfied.

Never was this more evident than last year. I won't bore you with all of the details (god knows I do enough of that already), but let's just say that an end-of-the-year five game win streak is the only thing that got a mediocre UAB team into the dance last year. UAB was the first team in tournament history that did not have a single top-50 RPI win. This bodes well for Texas A(screw the ampersand) M.

The Committee Is Made Up of Human Beings Who Eat and Drink and Laugh and Love

After two straight years of perceived "snubs" Notre Dame may disagree with this statement, but one should not discount the human element. I'm well aware that the Committee is supposed to be 100% impartial and not take conference or school affiliation into account, but c'mon, who's kidding who? These people are human and, like it or not, bring human emotions to the table. I mean, even the unimpeachably credible Paula Abdul has her favorites...

Let's look at the situation of the single hardest team to dissect...the George Mason Patriots. Mason is 23-7, has an RPI of 30, has a good road record, two top-50 wins, and 8 top-100 wins. (now, I am boring you with all of the details). A decent, albeit unspectacular profile. Ultimately the likely recipient of a bid except for the burning fact that the Patriots lost to fellow bubble sitter Hofstra twice in the last ten days (you better believe that Hofstra will never get this many mentions in a three day period again!). This is the type of thing that can kill one's candidacy.

Did I mention that Thomas O'Connor is a member of the Committee? Yes, THE Thomas O'Connor. The same Thomas O'Connor whose nameplate adorns the door of the George Mason Athletic Director's office. What exactly am I implying?

Look, I know that O'Connor is required to leave the room when the Committee discusses Mason, as well as all teams from the Colonial conference. But do you really think that consciously or subconsciously Dan Guerrero, the UCLA Athletic Director, is not going to be thinking if I look favorably on Mason, perhaps O'Connor will be a little more willing to give UCLA a higher seed? Simply stated, this is the nature of the beast. There are inherent conflicts of interest in the room and they must not be ignored.

Now, just to put a nice little bow around the whole George Mason situation, I must tell you that my radar senses that Mason is NIT-bound thanks to second leading scorer Tony Shinn's impersonation of former DePaul Blue Demon Levar Seals (he punched a Hofstra player in the groin in the tournament) and subsequent suspension. This is just the excuse that the Committee needs to leave Mason out.

Conferences Do Not Get Bids, Teams Do

On it's face the above statement is true. However, it's not that simple. One of the most underrated selection factors is conference record and standing. For example, California and Texas A (screw the ampersand) M both should ride their conference records right into the tournament. So, while its factually incorrect to say "the Big 12 deserves four bids," the fact that it is almost certain that the fourth place finisher will have at least a 10-6 record, as Texas A M does, almost ensures that the Big 12 will, in fact, get four bids.

The Number One Factor to Consider In Naming the At Large Teams Is...

Villanova is going dancing. We all know that. Brown is not. We know that to. The trouble arises with the bevvy of 17-11 teams that all have similar profiles and force the Committe, in many cases, to split hairs. To summarize the factors that they will consider include: (1) overall record; (2) RPI -- conference and non-conference; (3) conference record and standing; (4) strength-of-schedule -- especially non-conference with a bonus to those teams that choose to go on the road to play games; (5) recent performance; (6) road + neutral record; and (7) "quality wins" and "bad losses." Injuries and suspensions can also be a factor (the Committee assesses a team as it will be constituted when it actually takes the court for the tournament game) and the human element should not be overlooked. Further, those of us who LOVE all this stuff must trust that the Committee considers all the intangibles, which are provided for their enjoyment by a school's Sports Information Director.

But when all is said and done, the most important factor is...does the team LOOK like a tournament team. Pretty disappointing? All that buildup and that's it? Hey, sometimes the truth hurts... just ask Frank Thomas. Trust your eyes. If it looks like a tournament team, you know what? It probably is a tournament team. It it commits 26 turnovers and shoots 32% from the field it's not. And if it commits 46 turnovers and shoots 22% it's Purdue.

Enjoy today's action...