Wait Until You See What Happens in 2014!

[Warning: This post may make your head hurt and you very well may accuse me of being Dennis Miller. But, if you fashion yourself a Cubs fan, please read on...]

It could not have been more than five minutes after Reed Johnson's grand slam last night, that I headed down to the Wagner family basement to dig the 'W' flag out of its storage place where I was worried it would remain for the duration of the season. I picked my way past piles of tangled Christmas lights, sidestepped mountains of compact discs (tell me again why I felt the need to buy Young MC's Greatest Hits... sure "Bust a Move" had everyone... well... busting a move in 1989, but to claim that he had greatest hits is the biggest farce since the release of The Neverending Story in the mid-80's...that frickin' film was a lousy 94 minutes long!), and I wondered why I still have not tried to unload the Olmec Indian head statute of X'tapolapocetl that Mr. Burns gave us in appreciation of the time "theson" donated blood to save the old man's life (yes, there are times I live in a fantasy world. Many times). I had just knocked over a pile of my old Hit Parader magazines when I saw a mysterious box. A box I had to investigate.

(By the way, why did Reed shave the mustache and long sideburns? For a minute there, I thought Dick Tidrow was back in the Cubs clubhouse!)

Neatly stacked inside the mysterious box were three well-worn books, dusty from years of inattention. My heart raced as I realized that I had at long last found the lost books of Danstradamus. I had succeeded where Geraldo Rivera and others had failed. And, best of all, all three were there... the Book of Broglio, the Book of Prior, and, yes, the book of Paul Kilgus. Page after page of short "Cubtrains" foretelling the future of the "Ursidae Infante de Chi-cago." Written by this author as a wee three week old (okay so they were actually transcibed...the old indian lady did the actual writing), the lost Cubtrains were specifically intended to help future generations prepare for the inevitable heartbreak that would follow. I had to see what tales of woe they foldtold.

First, I opened to Cubtrain #69. I read...

"Thy feline dark as night shall stroll
past the corner guard who shall never be let in
While the terrific one hurls spheres of fire
to uplift amazing nine past Ursidae Infante."

(Yes, I know I was not born in '69 people...it's called suspended belief).

I turned next to Cubtrain #84...

"The father of many, perhaps all, displays mighty clout
A triad of disappointments shall depress
The bull shall falter
and the Friars of the West ascend"

A tear formed in the corner of my eye as I recalled the shrine I had built as a twelve year old --a shrine to Ryno, the Penguin, Bobby D and Sarge -- meticulously constructed the night before Game 5 at Jack Murphy Stadium. I opened the next book, turned to Cubtrain #89 and read on...

"Mammoth warriors of the bay
advance with the thrill of .650.
While the man of grace will deliver
thy hawk's mighty wings clipped"

I bravely moved on. Thinking it apropos that Cubtrain '98 was nowhere to be found -- as if it had never even happened, I moved on to perhaps the most painful of all...Cubtrain #03...

"Five to count, the sphere shall soar.
Scent of loo pungent, thy son of Felipe tracks
Audition impaired, the bespectacled extends
Thy street flows with the tears of the believers"

Number '07 was not far behind...

"Snakes slither never to be caught in a web
A flower tosses petal with great ire
A hill the asp climbs
and on green the reptiles congregate"

Finally, I came to #08. Not sure if I could handle what it would foretell, I sat quietly and thought for a moment. I thought about all the memorable times. The Sandberg game. Kid K's 20 strikeouts. Watching Giant Joe Carter pop up for the final out of the '98 regular season and the celebration that ensued. I thought about seeing Carmelo Martinez's first big league hit, a soaring drive that nestled itself safely in the left-field basket. I thought about Wild Thing and Shooter...Big Lee and, yes, even Rick Aguilera. Mike Bielecki and Kevin Tapani. One Dog and Shawon. Hot dogs. Frosty malts. Marla Collins chasing after foul balls in shorts that would make Daisy Duke proud.

Finally, I took a deep breath and looked at the browning page. Each word seemed to float before me. I read...

"Miles north, the prince and man of great brawn
shall brew a sea of great joys
Whileist the ram, the rose, and the perpetually injured former starter turned closer (whoa!)
shall see a century extended."

Uh oh.

* Okay, let's get one thing straight right off the bat (get it...off the bat...I kill me), I recognize that I am not a genius. But, I do want to point out that I have been telling anyone and everyone who would listen that the Brewers will win the NL Central title since April (just think for a second what "thewife" has to go through. While you all have the option to read the Random Thoughts at your leisure, the poor thing is forced to listen to my ramblings on a daily basis!). And, as much as I hate to say it, I am now more convinced than ever that Milwaukee will fly right past the Cubs and never look back.

I know that many of you will label me a hopeless pessimst in the mold of George Costanza and Luke Skywalker when Yoda first told him to get the X-Wing out of the Dagobah swamp and I suppose it is a fair accusation. That said, I believe it is difficult for any Cubs fan to argue with many of my reasons why the Cubs will not win the division. While I outlined many of my concerns in the "Welcome Back" blog last week, the list does not end there. Let's take a look at the current state of the North Side...

* Kerry Wood is still not pitching and nobody truthfully knows when he will be back. Is it really a blister? A shoulder? An elbow? Markprioritis? Anyone else wonder why the Cubs brass' has asked one of the team's interns to visit this weekend's Kohl's "Greatest-Sale!-This-Week-Only!-Get-Here-First-Thing-Saturday-Morning-Or-You-Will-Lose-Your-Chance!-That-Is-Until-Next-week-When-We-Will-Have-The-Exact-Same-Sale-And-The-Weekend-After-That-And-The-Weekend-After-That...Sale" with instructions to clean the bed and bath section out of towels? Anyone thinking of buying stock in terry cloth?

* I'm not worried about Aramis' dry spell which, prior to Wednesday night, was beginning to reach Andy Stitzer proportions. Yes, he has seen his average fall from .303 to .269 since June 25. He has a history of success though and I am confident that he will be tearing the cover off the ball before long.

I do remain concerned, however, about Kosuke and Geovany Soto. We've been over the fact that Fukudome is more likely to turn into Hee Seop Choi than he is Ichiro, but Soto has received nary a mention last week. I really like Geo and think he has tremendous potential, but he has never caught for a full season on the major league level and he is already up to 94 games played.(including last night). Lou is likely better off giving Henry Blanco a few more starts even if it means taking Geo's big bat out of the lineup.

And, just for the record, I doubt that Kosuke will turn into either Choi or Suzuki. Ultimately, he is probably headed for a career similar to that of Chairman Kaga, the builder and proprietor of "Kitchen Stadium"... he'll offer a few thrills every once in a while and will engender an occasion smile, but, ultimately, he will disappear from the landscape and certainly will not make anyone forget Billy Williams.

* The Cubs' depth is not quite the strength it used to be. Example 'A' is Ronny Cedeno. Check this stat out... I know he does not play much, but Cedeno, who had 18 RBI on May 6, now has a grand total of 20. That's two RBI in the last 11 weeks for those of you who are mathmatically challenged. "Two RBI?!? That's all he has is two g*d damn RBI?!?" Yes, Harry Doyle, he has the same number of RBI as Ted Lilly.

* Jason Marquis has not been terrible this year, but he is absolutely infuriating. I mean, that guy makes me angrier than Borat after he found Azamet with his Baywatch magazine. A perfect example was Tuesday night. The Cubs finally got a clutch hit from Mike Fontenot to cut the D-Backs' lead to 2-1, yet Marquis gave the run right back in the next half inning. And the way he did it is typical. Hit the 8th place hitter (yes, I know he was Alex Hank Aaron Romero, but even Augie Ojeda has six career dingers), allowed the pitcher to lay down a perfect bunt, and then give up a two out hit to Stephen Drew. Don't plunk a guy with 68 career at-bats and the likelihood Arizona scores is exponentially decreased.

* The bullpen is mediocre at best. Like Stone Temple Pilots' singer Scott Weiland and John Wayne Bobbitt, Bobby Howry is half the man he used to be. Kevin Hart? Ugh. Michael Wuertz? He's Kevin Hart's long lost twin and they are both apparently closely related to Todd Van Poppel. And, who knows what you are going to get from Carlos Marmol the rest of the way, although I personally believe that his All-Star game appearance will act as a springboard for the rest of the year. At least, with Wood on the shelf with MikeBrownicondria, we better hope so.

* A number of things that happened in the last couple of days really surprised me. For example, Roger Federer lost in the opening round of the Rogers Cup. The Shock and the Sparks of the WGNL (that's the "We Got Next League") got into a real bench clearing brawl. The guy who makes Matzah and macaroons for Passover will take over for Roger Ebert on "At the Movies" (oh, that's Mankiewicz...). But nothing surprised me more than Derrek Lee's first inning home run in Wednesday night's game.

Last week I wrote about how people in Chicago seem to be talking more about what Juan Uribe ate for dinner last night than about Lee's lack of power and so I did a little research that may be of interest. It is almost impossible to believe, but, even with his round tripper last night, Derrek has now hit three home runs in his last 182 at-bats, while, as the same time grounding into 11 double plays (bringing his season total to a career high 21) (the double play number, by the way, is in 144 "attempts" for a ratio 1/15). For comparisons sake, Mighty Mike Fontenot, who sometimes looks like he would be asked to stand next to the Yosemite Sam "You Must Be This Tall To Ride This Ride" sign before being allowed on the Demon roller coaster at Great America, has six home runs in his last 59 at-bats. At the same time, Mike has hit into only one double play (57 "attempts;" ratio of 1/57 ). I ask a question that may seem silly at first, who would you rather have up in a clutch situation?

* Uribe, by the way, ate four whole fried chickens and a coke.

* and a large pepperoni pizza and a chocolate cake and a six pans of baked beans and a tub of play-doh and Boone Logan's third toe...

* While I have spent an awful lot of time bashing the Cubs, my belief that the North Siders will not win the division has as much to do with the Brewers and the fact that they are chock-full of talent. Braun, Fielder, J.J. Hardy (does he still have his periods?), and Corey Hart can all whack the ball all over the park. Further, Sabathia and Sheets are the best duo in Milwaukee since Lenny and Squiggy. Put it all together, and the Brewers have not had a combination of offense and defense quite like this since the days of Paul Molitor, Robin Yount, Moose Haas and Pete Vukovich (Moose Haas and Peter Vukovich? Tell me again, how in the world the Brewers won the AL with that as their top-two starters?)

And, with regards to the pitching staff, it is not just about Sheets and Sabathia. Manny Parra (9-2, 3.68 ERA) is one of the most underrated pitchers in the National League. Would I put Zambrano, Harden and Dempster up against the Brewers' big three? Yes. But the Brewers talent cannot be denied.

* That brings us to the teams' remaining schedules. Now, if you do not realize that the Cubs have as many problems on the road as the protaganist and his son in Cormac McCarthy's Pulitzer Prize winning novel, please stop wasting all your time trying to get into the Charles M. Schultz School of Art by perfecting your drawing of the turtle and start paying attention! I mention this because the Cubs play 16 of their last 22 games of the season on the road, including four games in New York and the final three with Laverne and Shirley in attendance at Miller Park. And, while the Brewers do play 10 of their last 16 away from home, a broader look shows that the number becomes 1o of 26! This includes a four-pack with the pathetic San Diego Padres, who may be starting Eric Show by then, three with Cincy and three with Pittsburgh.

The Brewers do have to go to Philadelphia for four games in September, while the Cubs get the Phillies in the friendly confines (and, no matter how much he begs, Michael Jack Schmidt, will not be allowed in the stadium), while the opposite of true of the Mets (Cubs: road; Brewers: home). Both teams go to Atlanta, host Washington (hooray!), and play a number of games against the dregs of the division (Note: Milwaukee does have a lot more games against the Pirates). The biggest difference involves the Cubs playing the Marlins seven time, while the Brew Crew gets to toy with the aforementioned Padres for an setptet of games. Somebody please tell Tony Gwynn to back away from the buffett and pick up a bat. And, while you are at it, does anyone know where Kevin Brown is at and whether his right arm is still attached to his body?

* You will notice that I did not make mention of the Cardinals. The truth is that I am not concerned about the redbirds. Give Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan a lot of credit...they have done an amazing job with a team that has limited talent, but, ultimately, there is simply not enough there to hold on to the end in my opinion. And, yes, I am aware that both Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter are on the mend. Won't matter in the end.

* Bottom Line: Look, I hate to be pessimistic. I really do. But, the truth is the the red flags are everywhere. Now, I am not suggesting that Cubs fans panic. For example, I do not recommend running into the street and burning all of your Ivan DeJesus and Manny Trillo baseball cards. Further, please do not sacrifice any goats, build altars to Ronnie Woo Woo, or permanently move into the beer cooler at Murphy's. In fact, despite all I have written, I would not be surprised if the Cubs are playing post-season baseball. But, I would pay closest attention to the Mets, Phillies, and Marlins down the stretch as it says here that the runners-up in the National League East will be the Cubs' main competition for wildcard berth.

***Okay. First and foremost, thanks for making it all the way through this post. More importantly, if you call yourself a Cubs fan, it is time to prove it!!! Yes, I recognize that you are aware that Frank Castillo led the team in ERA in 1995, that Vance Law hit .293 in 1988 and that Joe Altobelli lost his only game as the Cubs manager in 1991 (at least now you are), but can you figure out all the references in the aforementioned Cubtrains? Give it a shot and post a comment! And feel free to write some of your own.